tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 8h 53m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2464 8h 49m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 3h 58m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → IAH 22:24UA 8105 9h 31m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 18m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 9h 25m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 02m 84% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:33 → DFW 17:55AA 1208 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 7h 51m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → IAH 22:24UA 8105 6h 39m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON