Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	23%	7%	2.4%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 12m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	BUR 17:34 → SEA 20:14AS 537	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 04m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 20m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 14m	99%	74%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	10h 59m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	57m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	8h 00m	80%	68%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:02 → SEA 09:42AS 491	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:27 → JFK 21:26AS 34	11h 24m	99%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON