Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 225 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–10%.

Safest bet that day WN 225 BUR 07:09 → LAS 08:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4108 BUR 13:00 → LAS 14:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 225 Southwest	BUR 07:09	LAS 08:17	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 786 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:57	LAS 09:05	4%	1%	1.2%	100%
WN 162 Southwest	BUR 09:09	LAS 10:18	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 803 Southwest	BUR 10:58	LAS 12:07	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 914 Southwest	BUR 19:16	LAS 20:24	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 594 Southwest	BUR 16:41	LAS 17:50	10%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 792 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:16	LAS 16:25	11%	4%	1.1%	61%
WN 2743 Southwest	BUR 14:27	LAS 15:36	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	BUR 12:28	LAS 13:34	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:00	LAS 14:21	20%	7%	2.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON