Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 562 BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 649 BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 562 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:09	PDX 09:27	6%	2%	1.0%	96%
AS 1550 Alaska	BUR 14:16	PDX 16:41	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 649 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:10	PDX 20:25	11%	3%	0.9%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON