Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3995 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3995 BUR 08:34 → PHX 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6246 BUR 16:34 → PHX 18:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3995 Southwest	BUR 08:34	PHX 10:09	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 2076 Southwest	BUR 11:19	PHX 12:54	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 826 Southwest	BUR 19:44	PHX 21:16	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2012 Southwest	BUR 13:51	PHX 15:26	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4220 Envoy	BUR 10:08	PHX 11:49	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 824 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 16:54	PHX 18:18	13%	3%	0.9%	76%
OO 6246 SkyWest	BUR 16:34	PHX 18:18	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON