Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	5%	5%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	99%	95%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 23m Portland	PDX 21:48 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	4h 35m	94%	83%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	3h 13m Denver	DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588	8h 17m	98%	82%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153	5h 10m	94%	68%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 26m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → RDM 18:20UA 2418	4h 35m	84%	67%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:02 → SEA 09:42AS 491	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → RDM 12:33AS 275	5h 31m	94%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON