tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1627 at 12:59, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1627 Southwest BUR 12:59 RNO 14:23 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 15:16 → LAS 16:25WN 792 3h 41m Las Vegas LAS 20:06 → RNO 21:31WN 3605 6h 15m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 53m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:57 → LAS 09:05WN 786 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 10:10 → RNO 11:33WN 1225 3h 36m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 09m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → RNO 19:56UA 581 6h 11m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 16:54 → PHX 18:18WN 824 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 19:49 → RNO 21:41WN 3246 4h 47m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 16m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 10:44 → RNO 11:55UA 1845 4h 53m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON