Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 491 BUR 07:02 → SEA 09:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 478 BUR 14:22 → SEA 16:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SEA 09:42	15%	2%	1.5%	87%
AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 11:06	SEA 13:46	16%	3%	1.6%	93%
AS 1389 Alaska	BUR 12:14	SEA 14:55	20%	3%	1.4%	no record
AS 537 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 17:34	SEA 20:14	20%	3%	1.4%	78%
AS 478 Alaska	BUR 14:22	SEA 16:51	21%	3%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON