Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 488 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 488 BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1453 BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	14%	4%	0.9%	80%
WN 2922 Southwest	BUR 17:17	SFO 18:38	16%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 2780 Southwest	BUR 08:34	SFO 09:55	24%	6%	2.5%	no record
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	24%	10%	0.8%	41%
UA 520 United	BUR 09:31	SFO 11:14	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	25%	7%	0.8%	52%
WN 2776 Southwest	BUR 13:49	SFO 15:10	25%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:07	SFO 17:30	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	29%	9%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON