tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 193 at 12:04, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 193 Southwest BWI 12:04 ABQ 14:03 15% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898 2h 05m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 7h 33m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 32m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 3h 18m Denver DEN 21:36 → ABQ 23:08UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 8h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 58m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:33 → ABQ 14:59UA 1594 8h 29m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → ABQ 13:52AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 8h 22m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:43 → DEN 17:31WN 937 3h 07m Denver DEN 20:38 → ABQ 21:59WN 123 8h 16m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531 7h 02m 92% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON