Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3993 at 15:49, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3993 Southwest	BWI 15:49	BHM 16:48	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 30m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 07m	100%	94%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879	2h 54m Nashville	BNA 10:13 → BHM 11:12WN 816	5h 40m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 30m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	7h 02m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	3h 57m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 37m	99%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON