Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 879 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 879 BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest WN 458 BWI 12:23 → BNA 13:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:32	BNA 07:19	4%	1%	0.7%	64%
WN 882 Southwest	BWI 09:40	BNA 10:28	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 737 Southwest	BWI 18:41	BNA 19:30	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 884 Southwest	BWI 15:38	BNA 16:26	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 458 Southwest	BWI 12:23	BNA 13:12	15%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON