Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5813 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5813 BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1222 BWI 17:09 → BOS 18:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5813 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 06:21	BOS 08:00	2%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 3994 Southwest	BWI 06:30	BOS 07:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 09:00	BOS 10:38	2%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 362 Southwest	BWI 08:04	BOS 09:30	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 13:45	BOS 15:23	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 18:22	BOS 20:07	5%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 1450 Southwest	BWI 11:03	BOS 12:29	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 352 Southwest	BWI 14:34	BOS 15:59	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1562 Southwest	BWI 13:14	BOS 14:40	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4431 Southwest	BWI 19:56	BOS 21:20	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1222 Southwest	BWI 17:09	BOS 18:34	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON