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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 92% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 10h 15m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938 1h 53m Denver DEN 13:12 → BUR 14:47WN 1465 8h 10m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:01 → SFO 11:01UA 2192 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 16m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:43 → DEN 17:31WN 937 2h 25m Denver DEN 19:56 → BUR 21:28WN 9003 8h 45m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 50m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 78% 66%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 55m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 20m 80% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON