Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1708 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1708 BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 319 BWI 17:29 → CLT 18:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:02	CLT 06:26	3%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 08:08	CLT 09:36	8%	3%	0.7%	95%
WN 4015 Southwest	BWI 08:30	CLT 09:54	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1216 American	BWI 10:40	CLT 12:08	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1531 American	BWI 14:55	CLT 16:30	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3121 American	BWI 19:01	CLT 20:33	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 319 Southwest	BWI 17:29	CLT 18:53	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON