Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 934 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 934 BWI 06:33 → DEN 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 939 BWI 16:55 → DEN 18:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 934 Southwest	BWI 06:33	DEN 08:15	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 938 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:37	DEN 11:19	10%	1%	0.7%	65%
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	12%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4894 Southwest	BWI 11:14	DEN 12:56	12%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 937 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:43	DEN 17:31	16%	3%	0.6%	47%
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 4122 Southwest	BWI 14:24	DEN 16:11	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 939 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:55	DEN 18:55	20%	3%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON