Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1403 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1403 BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2669 BWI 15:49 → DFW 18:01 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:35	DFW 14:51	20%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 2669 American	BWI 15:49	DFW 18:01	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON