tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 41m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 36m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 48m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 6h 36m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 08:08 → CLT 09:35AA 2670 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → EWR 12:50AA 1697 4h 42m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 58m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898 1h 56m Houston IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402 8h 38m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 7h 16m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 6h 54m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 12m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 6h 07m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON