Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 942 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 942 BWI 08:38 → FLL 11:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4411 BWI 13:05 → FLL 15:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 942 Southwest	BWI 08:38	FLL 11:17	12%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 1193 Southwest	BWI 12:59	FLL 15:47	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1500 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:56	FLL 17:35	14%	4%	0.8%	88%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 17:26	FLL 20:13	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	16%	4%	1.6%	80%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	16%	9%	1.3%	57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	22%	7%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON