Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4076 at 11:24, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4076 Southwest	BWI 11:24	GRR 13:06	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	6h 03m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 12:52 → GRR 13:52DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	4h 13m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	3h 58m Detroit	DTW 23:07 → GRR 00:06 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 39m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	6h 41m	100%	91%
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 12:33 → GRR 14:31UA 2751	6h 15m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	6h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 43m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON