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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 50m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Boston BOS 09:05 → JFK 10:24DL 5720 · flown by Republic 4h 03m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 08:21 → JFK 10:15AA 365 5h 13m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632 7h 55m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 5h 56m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 21m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON