Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 968 BWI 06:37 → LAS 08:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 147 BWI 18:03 → LAS 20:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 968 Southwest	BWI 06:37	LAS 08:32	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 969 Southwest	BWI 10:13	LAS 12:16	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	BWI 18:03	LAS 20:06	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 11m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 04m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879	56m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAS 10:02WN 3506	6h 30m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON