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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 59m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513 5h 01m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Boston BOS 09:00 → LGA 10:22DL 5732 · flown by Republic 4h 01m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 13m Detroit DTW 08:52 → LGA 10:42DL 1791 4h 34m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 49m Charlotte CLT 07:15 → LGA 09:12AA 2036 4h 10m 94% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879 2h 28m Nashville BNA 09:47 → LGA 12:59WN 551 6h 27m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 7h 25m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 6h 13m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 18:22 → BOS 20:07DL 5644 · flown by Republic 53m Boston BOS 21:00 → LGA 22:21DL 5609 · flown by Republic 3h 59m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON