Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 980 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 980 BWI 06:42 → MCO 08:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2309 BWI 15:09 → MCO 17:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 980 Southwest	BWI 06:42	MCO 08:53	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4914 Southwest	BWI 08:23	MCO 10:46	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 547 Southwest	BWI 09:28	MCO 11:50	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3302 Southwest	BWI 10:56	MCO 13:21	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3435 Southwest	BWI 18:50	MCO 21:23	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1256 Southwest	BWI 12:16	MCO 14:41	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:46	MCO 16:09	11%	3%	0.7%	61%
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:27	MCO 12:05	11%	4%	1.3%	72%
WN 3221 Southwest	BWI 16:36	MCO 18:59	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest	BWI 17:29	MCO 19:51	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 2309 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:09	MCO 17:48	16%	6%	1.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON