Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4094 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4094 BWI 07:56 → MDW 08:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1195 BWI 17:42 → MDW 18:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4094 Southwest	BWI 07:56	MDW 08:58	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 991 Southwest	BWI 10:32	MDW 11:36	7%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 992 Southwest	BWI 14:52	MDW 15:56	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4002 Southwest	BWI 19:42	MDW 20:45	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1195 Southwest	BWI 17:42	MDW 18:45	18%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON