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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 32m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:46DL 1627 4h 38m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 52m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 6h 57m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → MEM 10:59AA 1790 6h 57m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681 6h 17m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 5h 57m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON