Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 4219 BWI 17:18 → MIA 20:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	7%	2%	0.9%	87%
WN 180 Southwest	BWI 08:12	MIA 10:53	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1653 Southwest	BWI 10:53	MIA 13:37	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 17:31	MIA 20:11	22%	6%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	BWI 17:18	MIA 20:14	24%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON