Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2872 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2872 BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1008 BWI 16:30 → MSP 18:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2872 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:20	MSP 07:54	4%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MSP 13:11	8%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 1665 Southwest	BWI 11:56	MSP 13:33	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	BWI 19:10	MSP 21:00	12%	5%	0.7%	71%
WN 1008 Southwest	BWI 16:30	MSP 18:08	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON