Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 598 Southwest	BWI 10:22	MSY 11:57	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1010 Southwest	BWI 18:07	MSY 19:40	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 57m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 00m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 20m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	8h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 24m	100%	91%
United Details →	BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898	4h 00m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	8h 22m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790	5h 06m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	7h 20m	99%	88%
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:58 → MSY 13:26UA 1532	6h 10m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON