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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 58m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 02m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938 1h 42m Denver DEN 13:01 → ONT 14:27WN 1596 7h 50m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 9h 41m 99% 82%
FrontierDetails → BWI 12:35 → DFW 14:51F9 1475 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:04 → ONT 18:39F9 4689 9h 04m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:43 → DEN 17:31WN 937 3h 13m Denver DEN 20:44 → ONT 22:06WN 135 9h 23m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON