Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4596 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day YX 4596 BWI 06:04 → ORD 07:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:04	ORD 07:13	9%	3%	2.5%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:12	ORD 19:28	19%	10%	2.6%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:30	ORD 12:46	19%	6%	2.2%	79%
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:15	ORD 15:35	19%	7%	2.3%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	20%	6%	1.0%	86%
UA 249 United	BWI 12:03	ORD 13:07	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:00	ORD 20:13	29%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	35%	14%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON