Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 304 BWI 08:34 → PHX 10:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 156 BWI 17:37 → PHX 19:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 304 Southwest	BWI 08:34	PHX 10:19	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1040 Southwest	BWI 10:27	PHX 12:12	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 344 Southwest	BWI 15:25	PHX 17:20	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 156 Southwest	BWI 17:37	PHX 19:30	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	1h 15m Charlotte	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	7h 03m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:19 → PHX 09:59WN 1170	6h 27m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON