Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1119 BWI 08:27 → RDU 09:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1034 BWI 17:39 → RDU 18:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1119 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:27	RDU 09:41	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1217 Southwest	BWI 13:42	RDU 14:56	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1391 Southwest	BWI 19:40	RDU 20:54	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1034 Southwest	BWI 17:39	RDU 18:53	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON