Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1489 Southwest	BWI 08:55	RIC 09:49	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4600 Southwest	BWI 20:20	RIC 21:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 16m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → RIC 13:33DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	7h 13m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	7h 07m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:07DL 3073	6h 28m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	5h 50m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	55m Boston	BOS 08:55 → RIC 10:53DL 5622 · flown by Republic	4h 32m	97%	91%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:26 → RIC 09:43AA 1775	4h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	7h 01m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON