Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4817 BWI 09:12 → SAN 11:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1076 BWI 17:20 → SAN 19:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4817 Southwest	BWI 09:12	SAN 11:35	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest	BWI 13:58	SAN 16:21	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1076 Southwest	BWI 17:20	SAN 19:44	25%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	95%	85%
United Details →	BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	7h 59m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON