Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3523 Southwest	BWI 10:59	SDF 12:42	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 439 Southwest	BWI 19:42	SDF 21:24	10%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	6h 11m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 10:14 → SDF 12:14WN 3960	5h 42m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	1h 26m Boston	BOS 09:26 → SDF 12:09DL 5615 · flown by Republic	5h 48m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	7h 26m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	5h 09m	98%	86%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 10:24 → SDF 11:53AA 5145 · flown by PSA	6h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	5h 57m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	5h 05m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON