Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1087 BWI 10:24 → SEA 13:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 379 BWI 18:07 → SEA 21:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1087 Southwest	BWI 10:24	SEA 13:03	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 786 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 07:03	SEA 09:53	14%	3%	0.8%	82%
AS 379 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 18:07	SEA 21:00	19%	5%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 13m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON