Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:01	SFO 11:01	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 122 Southwest	BWI 08:59	SFO 11:35	10%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 49m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	9h 15m	99%	91%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 08:32 → SFO 11:03AA 2758	9h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823	10h 32m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	8h 49m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442	8h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	51m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 19m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON