tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4375 Southwest BWI 15:42 SJC 18:20 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 49m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 9h 24m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938 3h 06m Denver DEN 14:25 → SJC 15:52WN 459 9h 15m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 10m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 7h 50m 92% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:43 → DEN 17:31WN 937 3h 24m Denver DEN 20:55 → SJC 22:24WN 1679 9h 41m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 3h 44m Seattle SEA 13:37 → SJC 15:43AS 657 11h 40m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 11m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON