tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 455 Southwest BWI 08:30 SMF 11:01 6% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 20m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662 9h 41m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898 2h 05m Houston IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:14UA 1155 9h 22m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 8h 53m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078 9h 16m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938 3h 32m Denver DEN 14:51 → SMF 16:17WN 4825 9h 40m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:55 → DEN 18:55WN 939 47m Denver DEN 19:42 → SMF 21:06WN 1687 7h 11m 72% 59%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SMF 22:42UA 1828 8h 10m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON