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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 05:52, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55UA 1898 1h 35m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 8h 07m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 46m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 7h 57m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 51m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:38 → SNA 14:50AA 2465 10h 20m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:43 → DEN 17:31WN 937 2h 29m Denver DEN 20:00 → SNA 21:14WN 296 8h 31m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938 1h 30m Denver DEN 12:49 → SNA 14:10WN 1691 7h 33m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 2h 14m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 8h 38m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 47m 55% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON