Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1101 BWI 07:10 → TPA 09:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1106 BWI 15:08 → TPA 17:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1101 Southwest	BWI 07:10	TPA 09:33	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1102 Southwest	BWI 08:31	TPA 11:01	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 2706 Delta	BWI 09:21	TPA 11:49	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1103 Southwest	BWI 10:48	TPA 13:18	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2415 Southwest	BWI 18:35	TPA 21:22	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
F9 2925 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:13	TPA 11:00	13%	3%	1.9%	73%
WN 1106 Southwest	BWI 15:08	TPA 17:37	13%	3%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON