Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 606 at 18:13, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 606 Southwest	BWI 18:13	TYS 19:48	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 30m	100%	94%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:32 → BNA 07:19WN 879	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 10:14 → TYS 12:10WN 693	5h 38m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → TYS 20:37DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 31m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TYS 00:02 +1DL 3072	7h 02m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → TYS 10:10DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor	4h 02m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	5h 24m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 20:31 → TYS 22:07DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 40m	94%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON