Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1196 at 12:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1196 Southwest	BWI 12:01	VPS 13:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:43 → VPS 11:01DL 2048	6h 21m	100%	94%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:26 → BNA 07:18WN 879	58m Nashville	BNA 08:16 → VPS 09:45WN 762	4h 19m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 43m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 27m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 34m	99%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON