Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 406 at 14:21, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	BZN 14:21	ATL 20:14	11%	3%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	6h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	7h 44m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	6h 04m	98%	88%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 30m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:11 +1UA 233	10h 54m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	7h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026	6h 51m	97%	84%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 44m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:15UA 2806	6h 45m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	9h 39m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON