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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via SFO, leaving 16:17, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 21:03 → BOS 05:41 +1UA 796 11h 24m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 8h 59m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 9h 21m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 5h 51m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702 9h 34m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614 8h 18m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 16m Denver DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232 7h 14m 94% 73%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:39 → ORD 17:45AA 1501 2h 44m Chicago ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682 8h 26m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON