tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:37, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 8h 07m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 7h 37m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 5h 57m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 31m Denver DEN 09:55 → CLT 15:20UA 2231 6h 50m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:39 → ORD 17:45AA 1501 3h 09m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 8h 20m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 25m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 42m 92% 73%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 1h 18m Chicago ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748 6h 41m 85% 59%
UnitedDetails → BZN 11:38 → EWR 18:00UA 348 1h 19m Newark EWR 19:19 → CLT 21:23UA 1168 7h 45m 84% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:39 → ORD 17:45AA 1501 1h 02m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 6h 20m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON