Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1362 BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 431 BZN 16:28 → DEN 18:31 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 398 Southwest	BZN 11:24	DEN 13:04	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:44	DEN 12:33	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 8505 Southwest	BZN 11:19	DEN 12:50	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1109 Southwest	BZN 08:39	DEN 10:21	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 1110 Southwest	BZN 13:58	DEN 15:37	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4622 Southwest	BZN 15:29	DEN 17:08	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	BZN 16:28	DEN 18:31	16%	3%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON