Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 947 at 16:10, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 947 American Flight history →	BZN 16:10	DFW 20:09	18%	6%	0.9%	48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 22m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	8h 52m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → DFW 22:21DL 2967	7h 44m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970	5h 29m	93%	83%
United Details →	BZN 16:28 → DEN 18:31UA 431	2h 22m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 31m	97%	81%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:39 → DFW 12:43UA 1350	5h 13m	94%	81%
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:19 → SEA 15:12AS 279	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 17:53 → DFW 23:44AS 542	8h 25m	99%	80%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	2h 33m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 33m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON