tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 348 at 11:38, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:38 EWR 18:00 25% 11% 1.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 11h 34m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 19m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397 9h 52m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 8h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 9h 34m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 2h 53m Denver DEN 19:13 → EWR 01:01 +1UA 2093 8h 35m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:05 → EWR 16:02UA 2381 7h 32m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 7h 33m 94% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON